The planned third Malta–Sicily interconnector would initially provide 200MW and could scale to 400MW.
The published technical specifications for the second/third Malta–Sicily interconnector cable specify a 200MW initial cable, with the option to add a parallel cable doubling capacity to 400MW. Both designs are within standard subsea-HVAC engineering practice. Final commissioning is targeted for mid-to-late 2027, subject to manufacturing and installation schedules. Forward-looking 'will' language is partly speculative — capacity targets are policy intent, with delivery contingent on schedule risk.
The published technical specifications for the second/third Malta–Sicily interconnector cable specify a 200MW initial cable, with the option to add a parallel cable doubling capacity to 400MW. Both designs are within standard subsea-HVAC engineering practice. Final commissioning is targeted for mid-to-late 2027, subject to manufacturing and installation schedules. Forward-looking 'will' language is partly speculative — capacity targets are policy intent, with delivery contingent on schedule risk.
We tested Abela's claim against Interconnect Malta project documentation, the EU TEN-E / Projects of Common Interest list, Energy and Water Agency strategy documents, Enemalta capacity-planning disclosures, REWS regulatory records and the ENTSO-E Ten-Year Network Development Plan. The methodological question is whether the 200MW initial / 400MW scaled capacity targets match the project's published technical specifications, recognising that 'will' is forward-looking on a project not yet commissioned.
Verdict lands at Mostly True because the published spec for the second Malta-Sicily HVAC subsea cable does call for a 200MW initial cable with an engineering-feasible 400MW scaling option via a parallel cable, but the 400MW option is on the roadmap rather than under construction, large subsea projects routinely slip 12-24 months, and Maltese government 'third interconnector' framing differs from the EU's 'second HVAC interconnector' nomenclature. The deep-dive lays out the technical specs, the 2027 target commissioning window, and the schedule and naming caveats; this editorial note is methodology only.
Will the third interconnector really deliver 200MW initially and scale to 400MW
Abela's two-stage figure — 200MW initially, scaling to 400MW — maps to the actual project structure of Malta's second interconnector cable.
The current and planned interconnector stack
- Existing cable (in service since 2015) — 220 kV HVAC subsea cable, 200MW capacity, Malta–Sicily, ~98 km. This is the cable damaged by the 2022 anchor incident.
- Second cable (in construction) — 220 kV HVAC subsea cable, 200MW capacity, parallel alignment. Project value ~€135–150M, partly EU-funded under CEF / TEN-E.
- Third cable (option under same project envelope) — could be added in parallel, lifting combined capacity to ~400MW.
Why the 200→400MW pathway makes engineering sense
Subsea HVAC cables of this length are typically deployed in pairs or triples for redundancy. Three reasons for the staged approach:
- Capacity redundancy — Two parallel 200MW cables means losing one (e.g., to anchor incident) leaves Malta with 200MW import capacity intact, rather than zero. This is the lesson of 2022.
- Scalable demand match — Malta's electricity demand has grown faster than expected (D06 noted 663MW peak arriving 6 years ahead of 2019 forecasts). Two parallel cables provide future-proofing.
- EU grid integration — Better Italian-grid integration unlocks more renewable imports from Sicily, helping Malta hit its 2030 renewable targets.
Timeline reality
Realistic project commissioning windows:
- Second cable — manufacturing complete by end-2026; installation vessel scheduling 2026–2027; commissioning targeted mid-to-late 2027.
- Third cable — final investment decision pending second cable performance and demand-growth data through 2027–2028; potential commissioning early-to-mid 2030s.
So Abela's '200MW → 400MW' framing collapses two timeline milestones that are several years apart. The 200MW arrives circa 2027; the 400MW would be circa 2030–2032 if the third cable is built.
Risks to the plan
Several factors could delay or modify the trajectory:
- Cable manufacturing capacity — Subsea HVAC cable manufacturers (Nexans, Prysmian) have backlog issues; orders are competing globally.
- Installation vessel scheduling — Specialised cable-installation vessels are heavily booked; slot availability can shift commissioning by 6–12 months.
- Italian permitting — Cable landfall and onshore connection on the Sicilian side requires Italian approvals, which have historically been slower than Malta's.
- Cost escalation — Subsea-cable capex has risen sharply since 2022 with steel and copper price moves; any third-cable decision will be cost-revised.
So is the claim accurate?
The 200MW initial / 400MW potential structure matches the published project specifications. The 'doubling' framing is engineering-consistent and politically reasonable. The honest caveats: 200MW arrives in 2027, not immediately; 400MW would be early-to-mid 2030s and requires a separate final investment decision after second-cable performance is known.
Verdict: Mostly True.