Tested against Eurostat House Price Index (prc_hpi_a), Eurostat population (demo_pjan), foreign-born share (migr_pop3ctb), NSO Residential Property Price Index, and Maltese letting-agency rental-market data. Maltese population grew ~35% across the PL legislature, principally via foreign-worker inflows; house prices roughly doubled; urban 1-bed rents rose ~50%. The correlation is strong and the causal mechanism well-documented. Population growth is the dominant structural driver — but not the exclusive one.

The data

The correlations are clean:

• Population — Maltese population grew from ~417k (2012) to ~568k (2024) per Eurostat demo_pjan, +35% across the period.
• Foreign-born share — rose from ~5.5% (2013) to ~30% (2024) per Eurostat migr_pop3ctb. Foreign-worker inflow accounts for the bulk of the population gain.
• House prices — Eurostat prc_hpi_a Maltese house-price index roughly doubled across 2013-2024.
• Urban 1-bed rents — moved from ~€650/mo (2018) to ~€1,000/mo (2024) per KPMG and Maltese letting-agency data, +~50% in six years.
• Wages — grew ~45% in nominal terms across the same window per Eurostat earn_ses_pub2s.

House prices and rents both materially outpaced wage growth. The mechanism is well-documented: a 316 km² geographic-supply-constrained jurisdiction absorbing 35% population growth in 12 years compounds rent demand and buy-side demand simultaneously, with most of the demand pressure landing in already-tight central districts (Sliema, Gżira, St Julian's, Msida) where foreign-worker rental demand concentrates.

The other structural drivers

Population growth is the dominant driver but not the only one. The structural-drivers analysis in companion fact-check #262 lists five drivers contributing to the housing-affordability pressure:

• EU-fastest population growth — the largest single contributor, compounding rent and buy demand simultaneously.
• Foreign-worker rental demand — central-district concentration pushing rents in tightest-supply areas.
• Low-interest-rate environment 2013-2022 — fuelled investor-buyer demand for Maltese property, including buy-to-let.
• Geographic supply constraint — Malta is 316 km² total; limits how much build-out can absorb demand.
• Tourist short-let competition — removes stock from long-term rental market in central districts.

Of these, population growth is the operative dominant cause — most of the other drivers either flow from it (foreign-worker rental demand) or compound it (geographic supply constraint, tourist short-lets). Interest rates 2013-2022 ran a partly-independent channel through investor-buyer demand. So Delia's "due to population growth" framing captures the largest contributor but not the entire causal picture.

Why this matters

The policy implications differ depending on which driver is presented as dominant. If population growth is the primary cause, the policy levers are around managed migration, foreign-worker channelling, and demand-side measures. If geographic supply or zoning is the primary cause, the levers are around planning reform, build rates, and supply-side intervention. If low interest rates and investor demand are the primary driver, the levers are around fiscal measures targeting investor-buyers. Delia's framing positions population growth as the operative cause — which the data supports as the largest single driver — but the policy response will need to address the secondary drivers as well.

So is the claim accurate?

Yes. Population growth is the operative structural driver of Maltese housing-affordability pressure on the documented record: Maltese population +35% via foreign-worker inflows, house prices roughly doubled, urban rents +50% — all across the same window. The causal mechanism (population growth compounding rent and buy demand simultaneously in a 316 km² geographic-supply-constrained jurisdiction) is the dominant cause. Adjacent drivers (low-rate investor demand, tourist short-lets, supply constraints, zoning) compound rather than substitute for the population-growth cause.

Verdict: True.