IMF says Malta will have the best growth up to 2031.
IMF World Economic Outlook April 2026 projects Malta's real GDP growth at 3.9% in 2026 — likely the highest in the EU bloc. Growth moderates to 3.5% in 2027 (in line with European Commission forecasts). The IMF Statistical Appendix omits detailed projections for 2028-2031 'because of an unusually high degree of uncertainty for certain countries' — so the strict 'best to 2031' superlative isn't directly published. The directional 'Malta projected to lead or near-lead EU growth' is solidly supported through the medium term.
IMF World Economic Outlook April 2026 projects Malta's real GDP growth at 3.9% in 2026 — likely the highest in the EU bloc. Growth moderates to 3.5% in 2027 (in line with European Commission forecasts). The IMF Statistical Appendix omits detailed projections for 2028-2031 'because of an unusually high degree of uncertainty for certain countries' — so the strict 'best to 2031' superlative isn't directly published. The directional 'Malta projected to lead or near-lead EU growth' is solidly supported through the medium term.
We tested Abela's claim against (1) the IMF World Economic Outlook April 2026 release and Statistical Appendix, (2) the IMF DataMapper Malta profile, (3) European Commission economic forecasts for Malta, and (4) Maltese press coverage of the IMF / EC projections.
Mostly True. The IMF World Economic Outlook April 2026 projects Malta's real GDP growth at 3.9% in 2026, with multiple analyses pointing to this likely being the highest economic expansion in the EU. Growth moderates to ~3.5% in 2027, aligning with European Commission forecasts. Malta has been the EU's growth-leading economy in recent quarters: Q4 2025 real-GDP growth was 6.4% YoY (the highest in the EU that quarter). The IMF has been notably positive on Malta — its Article IV consultations and WEO releases have placed Malta among the EU's top growers across the 2022-2027 medium-term horizon. Limitations: the IMF Statistical Appendix omits detailed 2028-2031 projections 'because of an unusually high degree of uncertainty for certain countries', so the specific 'best to 2031' superlative cannot be directly cited from the WEO datamapper. Some sources list ~3.5% for 2029. Abela's framing is therefore supportable in spirit (Malta projected as a top EU grower) but the strict 'IMF says best to 2031' isn't directly anchored in a published IMF table — it appears to extend a near-term ranking to a longer horizon than the IMF formally publishes.
Did the IMF really say Malta will have the best growth up to 2031
Abela's framing is a strong superlative — the IMF "says" Malta will be best to 2031. The IMF's actual published projections support a more conservative version of the claim cleanly: Malta is projected to lead or near-lead EU growth in 2026 and 2027. For 2028-2031 specifically, the IMF Statistical Appendix omits detailed country projections "because of an unusually high degree of uncertainty for certain countries," so a literal "to 2031" superlative isn't directly published.
What the IMF April 2026 WEO actually says
Malta's position in the EU ranking
The IMF doesn't publish a direct "fastest-growing EU economy" league table, but applying the same WEO projections across member states gives a clear picture:
| Year | Malta projection | EU position | Closest rivals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 (actual) | 5.0% | #1 in EU | Ireland slipped due to trade adjustments |
| Q4 2025 (actual) | 6.4% YoY | #1 in EU | Far ahead of EU peers |
| 2026 (IMF) | 3.9% | Likely #1 EU | Ireland (~3%), Poland (~3%), Croatia (~3%) |
| 2027 (EC) | 3.5% | Top 3 EU | Ireland, Croatia closer |
| 2028-2031 | — | IMF omits | Statistical Appendix flags uncertainty |
What's defensible vs what's stretched
- 'Malta projected near top of EU growth through medium-term' — strongly supported by IMF April 2026 WEO + EC autumn 2025 forecast.
- 'Malta best in EU in 2026-2027' — supported by IMF projection of 3.9%, likely the EU's highest in 2026.
- 'IMF says best to 2031' — overstates what the IMF formally publishes. The Statistical Appendix omits detailed 2028+ Malta projections.
Abela's 'l-IMF jgħid illi sas-sena 2031 se nkunu u se nibqgħu l-aqwa ekonomija fl-Ewropa' rolls a confident near-term ranking into a longer-horizon superlative the IMF doesn't actually publish. The spirit of the claim is supported by the data; the literal 'to 2031' framing is stretched.
So is the claim accurate?
Mostly. Malta is projected to lead or near-lead EU growth across the published IMF horizon (2024-2027). For 2028-2031 the IMF doesn't publish detailed Malta-specific country projections citing uncertainty, so the strict 'to 2031' superlative cannot be directly anchored. The supportable version: Malta is among the EU's top growers across the medium-term horizon, projected to remain near the top through 2027.
Verdict: Mostly True.