Deficit reduced by average 1.3 percentage points per year over five years.
Verified by primary data. NSO and Eurostat figures show Maltese general government deficit at 7.8% of GDP in 2021, 5.2% in 2022, 4.5% in 2023 (revised down from initial 4.9%), 3.5% in 2024, and 2.2% in 2025 (Eurostat April 2026 release). That's a 5.6pp drop over four years averaging 1.4pp/year, and a 7.5pp drop over five years from the 2020 COVID peak (~9.7%) averaging ~1.5pp/year. Caruana's '1.3pp on average over five years' framing is conservative against the actual trajectory.
Verified by primary data. NSO and Eurostat figures show Maltese general government deficit at 7.8% of GDP in 2021, 5.2% in 2022, 4.5% in 2023 (revised down from initial 4.9%), 3.5% in 2024, and 2.2% in 2025 (Eurostat April 2026 release). That's a 5.6pp drop over four years averaging 1.4pp/year, and a 7.5pp drop over five years from the 2020 COVID peak (~9.7%) averaging ~1.5pp/year. Caruana's '1.3pp on average over five years' framing is conservative against the actual trajectory.
We tested Caruana's claim against NSO Maastricht Treaty first reporting for 2025 and second reporting for 2024, Eurostat general government deficit / surplus (gov_10dd_edpt1), Caruana's Budget Speech 2025 forecast, and EU EDP corrective-trajectory documentation. The methodological question is whether the 2021-2025 trajectory averages at or above the 1.3pp/year Caruana cites, recognising the average depends on which start year is picked.
Verdict lands at True because the deficit fell from 7.8% in 2021 to 2.2% in 2025 — a 5.6pp drop averaging 1.4pp/year over four years, or 1.5pp/year if measured from the 2020 COVID peak — comfortably exceeding the 1.3pp/year figure Caruana cites. The deep-dive lays out the year-by-year trajectory, the drivers (GDP growth, Pillar Two top-up, COVID-spend wind-down), and the EDP-exit context; this editorial note is methodology only.
Did the deficit really fall by 1.3 percentage points per year on average over five years
Caruana's 1.3pp/year claim is conservative compared to the actual delivery.
Year-by-year reductions (NSO + Eurostat first/second reporting): 2021→2022 was 2.6pp; 2022→2023 was 0.7pp; 2023→2024 was 1.0pp; 2024→2025 was 1.3pp. Total drop of 5.6pp across four annual steps — averaging 1.4pp/year. Stretching the window to five years to include the 2020 COVID-emergency reading (~9.7% of GDP, second-highest in EU after Spain), the per-year average is closer to 1.5pp/year.
Either way, Caruana's '1.3pp/year over five years' framing is conservative against the actual trajectory. The 2.2% 2025 print also brings Malta back below the 3% Treaty ceiling — the Eurostat April 2026 release confirmed this and Caruana announced exit from the Excessive Deficit Procedure two years ahead of the Council's 2027 deadline.
Verdict: True.